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Thursday, May 9, 2013

Gallup Finalizing Election 2012 Review

Gallup, as I've discussed previously, has been undergoing an extensive review of our 2012 election polling for a number of months. We are now in the process of finishing the review of all methodological issues relating to the pre-election polling. The process involves a blue ribbon group of outside experts, including Dr. Michael Traugott of the University of Michigan, and our own Gallup team of methodologists and statisticians. We will be reporting our findings in early June in Washington.

Our review includes a significant amount of new research, including fielding new research experiments focused on six specific areas of pre-election polling, along with simulations and re-examination of every component of the pre-election polling process. All of this research, some of it focused on the future of election polling, is one reason why the review process is taking several months. 

A number of changes have already been implemented in our ongoing tracking, and others will continue to be tested, including experimental tests involving voter sampling and likely voter models.

I'll be discussing more on this process on this blog after the June event.


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