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Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Obama Convention Bounce Fades

The latest Gallup tracking data show that Barack Obama now leads Mitt Romney by one percentage point, 47% to 46% among registered voters, where the race was on Aug. 31-Sept. 3, before the Democratic Convention began.

During the interim period, Obama stretched his lead to as high as 50% to 43%, confirming a Democratic Convention bounce. We began to see Obama’s lead expanding on Tuesday night of the convention, and then saw it begin to dissipate on Wednesday the week after the convention.

The latest Gallup Daily tracking average extends from Sept. 11-17, 2012. This data includes one night of interviewing with the high level of news media focus on Romney’s videotaped “47%” comments. The impact of those comments, if any, will be seen in interviewing in the days to come.

The dominant theme in the race this year has been its central tendency. Neither candidate has been able to maintain a sustained lead for a lengthy period of time. It appears now that the Democratic convention was successful in boosting Obama’s standing in ours and other polls, but the gravitational pull of the race back to a rough parity was apparently not eradicated, and has exercised its will again.

In addition to the attention given to Romney’s video comments, there will no doubt be more news eruptions over other issues or pseudo-issues in the weeks ahead. The next structured event in the presidential campaign is the first debate at the University of Denver on Oct. 3. Keep in mind that early voting has already begun in some states, so as time moves inexorably forward, the potential for a radical shake-up in the race becomes less mathematically possible.


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