Obama Now Close to George W. Bush's Position in 2004

The sample size of presidents who have sought re-election in the modern era of polling is quite small -- just 10 since World War II.

But even this small handful of contests gives us some contextual clues for understanding the current positioning of the 11th president to seek re-election since World War II -- Barack Obama.

Of the 10 who have gone before him, seven were victorious: Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush. The three who failed were George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford -- although Ford was an exceptional case given that he inherited the presidency from a disgraced president (Nixon) only about two years before he had to seek re-election.

Let's look first at the two most recent campaigns in which the incumbent lost: George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Carter in 1980. Our quest is to see how the position of these two incumbents in May of their re-election year compares with where Obama is today.

George H.W. Bush was clearly in trouble in May 1992 based on his job approval rating of 40% (in a May 7-10, 1992, Gallup poll). Bush had enjoyed an 89% job approval rating just a little more than a year earlier following the successful conclusion of the Persian Gulf War. That “ratings high” was short-lived, however, and the bad economy and perceptions of how well Bush was or was not handling economic matters began to eat away at his ratings. Bush bottomed out with a job approval rating of 29% in late July/early August, and, of course, he went on to lose to Bill Clinton in November (with Ross Perot gaining 19% of the popular vote). Still, despite his ailing job approval rating, Bush was not doing as poorly in terms of the trial heat horse race numbers in May 1992: Gallup had Bush at 35%, Ross Perot at 30%, and Bill Clinton at 29%.

Jimmy Carter was also not faring well in terms of his job approval rating in the spring of 1980. His approval rating was 43% in a May 2-5 poll and fell to a nadir of 31% by June of that year. Still, as was the case for Bush senior, Carter was doing OK in terms of the trial heat ballot in May 1980. He lead Reagan by 38% to 33%, which John Anderson coming in behind at 21%.

Both of these cases suggest that the job approval rating now is more predictive than the trial heat ballot positioning. This follows the general conclusion in Robert Erickson and Christopher Wlezien’s new book The Timeline of Presidential Elections. They found that, in general, the presidential job approval rating is more important as a predictor of the election outcome at this point than the trial heat ballot -- while the ballot becomes more important as a predictor as Election Day approaches.

What about the three most recent presidents who won re-election?

George W. Bush’s position no doubt provides the most potential comfort for Obama’s campaign team. Bush’s job approval rating in a May 2-4, 2004, Gallup poll was 49%, lower than Obama’s current 51%. Bush was also essentially tied with John Kerry in a trial heat poll among registered voters: 45% for Bush and 44% for Kerry, with Ralph Nader picking up 6%. Bush ended up winning over Democrat John Kerry by only three percentage points: 51% to 48%. But he won.

Obama today is in essentially the same position as Bush was then. His job approval rating is slightly higher than Bush's May 49% reading, and although the margin varies, Obama is roughly tied with Romney in the trial heat ballot, with the most recent five-day average showing Obama slightly ahead.

Thus, Obama’s current position looks closer to Bush’s than it does for any of the other incumbent presidents we are analyzing here. As is always the case, of course, every election is different. For one thing, Bush was an incumbent Republican, while Obama is an incumbent Democrat. That means, among other things, that Bush gained a few points in the translation from registered voters to likely voters in the final analysis, which is what usually happens to Republican candidates. Obama is likely to lose some ground against Romney based on differentially higher turnout among Republicans on Election Day.

One of the major issues of 2004 was the Iraq War, with an undercurrent of homeland security and terrorism. The economy is the big issue this year. On the other hand, Bush’s 2004 opponent was a rich, white male in his 60s from Massachusetts. Obama’s 2012 opponent is a rich, white male in his 60s from Massachusetts.

But I think the bottom line is that Obama is in reasonably close enough proximity to Bush’s positioning in 2004 -- based on the job approval and the trial heat ballot indicators -- that he could in theory duplicate Bush’s win.

Bill Clinton was in a better position when he sought re-election in 1996 than Obama is now. Clinton had a job approval rating of 55% in a May 9-12, 1996, poll, and he was significantly ahead of Bob Dole, 47% to 32%, in the trial heat ballot, with Ross Perot getting 19% of the vote. Clinton ended up winning over Dole by a margin of eight points, with Perot picking up 9% of the vote.

Ronald Reagan had a job approval rating of 52% in a May 3-5, 1984, poll. He was only ahead of Walter Mondale by four points, 50% to 46%, among registered voters in a May Gallup poll. Reagan picked up steam as the year progressed, bolstered by an effective campaign strategy, and eventually went on to win over Mondale by 18 points: 59% to 41%.

Overall, we see that Obama is right in the middle of the contextual landscape provided by the last five U.S. presidents who sought re-election. He is not in as bad a position as were Carter and George H.W. Bush in May of their re-election years. He is not in as good a position now as were Reagan and Clinton in May of their re-election years. Obama is just about exactly where George W. Bush was at this point in his re-election year -- and of the five presidents, Bush’s margin over his opponent in the popular vote ended up being the closest. This suggests that a prediction of a close race next November would not be unreasonable.

The big question: What will the trajectory of Obama’s approval and ballot positioning be between now and November? That will in part depend on the trajectory of the economy. Stay tuned.