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Thursday, May 5, 2011

GOP Candidates in SC Debate Have a Lot to Gain

Tonight’s GOP debate in South Carolina features five possible presidential candidates, four of whom are known to less than half of Republicans nationwide. As such, one much-sought-after outcome of the debate could be an increase in the precious commodity of name identification among those who, in some fashion, manage to stand out. 

Of the five potential candidates who are appearing on stage in Greenville, South Carolina, Texas Rep. Ron Paul is best known, with a 73% recognition level in Gallup’s latest two-week tracking average (April 18-May 1). Paul, of course, has run for president before. His fame among Republicans may be enhanced by the fact that his son, Rand Paul, ran successfully for the Senate in Kentucky this last year.  Like his father Ron, Rand is a doctor.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum are next in line in terms of name identification. They are each recognized by 46% of Republicans.

Business Executive Herman Cain, the only black Republican to express interest in running for president, has a name identification of 24%. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has the lowest name identification of any Republican we track, at 17%.

Two of the missing potential candidates tonight certainly do not need the exposure -- at least as far as their name identification is concerned.  Sarah Palin and Donald Trump are each known by more than 95% of Republicans nationwide. Not unrelated, both have starred or are starring in reality television shows.

Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee -- all missing in action for tonight’s debate -- have name identification levels in the 82-87% range.

Of the five candidates on stage tonight in Greenville, the one who ignites the most excitement among his followers is Cain, whose Positive Intensity Score over the last two weeks is 20. He is tied with Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who also has a Positive Intensity Score of 20 (Bachmann's recognition level is 59%). Cain and Bachmann trail only Huckabee in terms of Positive Intensity; the former Arkansas governor has a Positive Intensity Score of 24.  If Cain's appeal to those who know him now is apprarent to other Republicans watching tonight, he could come out a winner.

Of the remaining four candidates in tonight’s debate, Paul, Pawlenty, and Santorum have Positive Intensity Scores of 16, 15, and 13, respectively -- putting them at an about average level. Johnson suffers from having not only the lowest recognition of any candidate we track, but also the lowest Positive Intensity Score, at 6%. Obviously Johnson needs to gain on all fronts in the coming weeks if he expects to be able to challenge his fellow Republicans for his party’s nomination.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 10:52 PM  

Ron Paul definitely ignites the most excitement. Just look at how much money he raised on the day of the debate. 80% of the comments in the Fox News chat system were in support of Dr. Paul. I think that's a lot of excitement!

justsyknow said...
May 5, 2011 at 10:59 PM  

I believe your article is slightly incorrect. The one who ignites the most excitement among his followers is not Cain, I think you meant to say Ron Paul. Or is raising 1 million dollars today because of the debate not scoreable??

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:00 PM  

it sure sounded to me like ron paul ignited the most excitement

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:01 PM  

You sure do like to throw around a lot of labelling numbers. At first I thought this was going to be the B list roster. With the exception of one, I think these candidates are worthy of being taken seriously. Your A list (A standing for Absentee) is just for theatre. Ron Paul is the heart of the Republican message.

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:02 PM  

"Of the five candidates on stage tonight in Greenville, the one who ignites the most excitement among his followers is Cain,"

Too bad that's not going to pan out to any votes. And, he was chair of the HATED Federal Reserve in Kansas City, so he who's in bed with the creator of our inflation, the Federal Reserve, will get NO LOVE from republicans...

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:04 PM  

Herman Cain was unbelievable! Just when we were afraid to face yet another stuff and fluff election, along comes a rare and unusual anomaly. A candidate with a BRAIN! He can speak without sounding like a rehearsed speechmaker and cut to the chase like a General in combat faced with life and death decisions. He gives Americans something we have lacked for years....HOPE!

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:25 PM  

Well, it looks like our overlords have decided that Hermain Cain, a former governor of the Federal Reserve of Kansas, is their pick as the Republican candidate in our one party system. God help America if we don't wake up soon and start thinking for ourselves! This is insanity! Skipping Dr. Paul on a question on the economy was almost laughable if it wasn't so sad.

David said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:29 PM  

Well, its good that Mr. Cain has such a "Positive Intensity score" (whatever the hell that is.).
I have a question though...Did all of his Positively Intensive supports raise nearly a million dollars for him today, merely on the hopes that he would run?

Yeah, thought not.

Tom said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:37 PM  

I watched the debate and the thing that struck me was how most of the candidates were trying to be showmen, not statesmen. The only one who really appeared to have soild consistant answers based upon a philosphy was Congressmen Ron Paul.
Herman Cain had some of the best lines, but I pray that people are looking for substance, not sound bites.

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:48 PM  

Cain is just like most of the others. He supported tarp and worked for the Federal Reserve before. He has no interest in ending the Fed. Don`t be fooled by the charisma.

Anonymous said...
May 5, 2011 at 11:57 PM  

Ron Paul supporters are only 'average' in intensity? Wow, we'll have to work on that!!

Anonymous said...
May 6, 2011 at 12:15 AM  

Herman Cain, what excitement?
Ron Paul gave the best answers, and he looked the most presidential in my view. He has the best track record of consistently voting for the Constitution, and the best reasons for stopping these undeclared wars of aggression. His ways of stopping this economic collapse are unmatched.

dbarsell said...
May 6, 2011 at 12:49 AM  

The military-industrial complex, corrupt politicians, global bankers, Wall Street insiders, the FED, the biased media, the waterboarders, and the IRS don’t like what we’re doing.
But every good American (and liberty-loving, law-abiding person of the world) is applauding us, and daring to hope for a better future.
Ron Paul 2012

lorraine collins said...
May 6, 2011 at 1:07 AM  

does Positive Intensity Score mean they speak LOUD.
Ron Paul is the only person who can get America back on track.
And unless the RNC realize this this country will go down the
toilet.

Anonymous said...
May 6, 2011 at 1:32 AM  

Cain was selected by the Banksters of Wall Street to ensure the status quo of Fed Reserve zero interest handouts to banks and controlled value of America's savings through the devaluing of the dollar. Cain will have no problem raising money, the Banskster interests will be there to support him with taxpayers' money.

Z said...
May 6, 2011 at 4:06 AM  

Cain seemed to make some good points about the free market, but as someone who is familiar with Paul's political career, he is the one with seeing a surge of intensity.
If I'm not mistaken, he raised over a million bucks yesterday (day of debate). Also, he saw success as the leading R in the general against Obama in a recent CNN poll - which seems to solidify him as undeniably electable. Paul's performance in the debate had several highlights and was much more energetic and comfortable compared to his debates during the last cycle.

Sure, Herman Cain may be rising nominally, but this is because he started so low as an unknown; Ron Paul, on the other hand, is seeing the real surge as of May 6. If anyone is going to try to stop Paul, they'd better kick it up a gear now and announce rather than let Paul win more polls.

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